19% is a shortfall relative to keeping pace with less-exposed peers, not a 19% unemployment rate. The study finds no economy-wide AI displacement and does not establish causation.
The worry goes beyond how much a child learns.
Which question has been on your mind?
Will the path we invest in today still lead somewhere when they grow up?
RESEARCH / 2025–2026
Research is already asking these questions.
Current employment and employer expectations offer three different views of the changes.
LABOUR-MARKET DATA · 2026 Q202 / 03
Will a degree lead to a matching job?
42%
underemployment among recent US college graduates
In Q2 2026, about 42% of employed recent college graduates worked in jobs that typically do not require a college degree.
Out of 100 employed recent college graduates
Job typically does not require a degree · 42%Other employed graduates · 58%
Unemployment was about 5.6% in the same quarter: a separate measure.
Underemployment is defined by the job’s typical degree requirement. It does not mean unemployment, low pay or replacement by AI. These graduate outcomes do not predict today’s children’s employment.
EMPLOYER EXPECTATIONS · 2025–203003 / 03
Will today’s skills still be enough?
39%
of existing core skills expected to change or become outdated by 2030
In the Future of Jobs Report 2025, surveyed employers expect about 39% of workers’ existing core skills to change or become outdated between 2025 and 2030.
Existing core skills · employer expectations for 2025–2030
Expected to change or become outdated · 39%Other existing core skills · 61%
The same report projects 170 million jobs created and 92 million displaced, a net gain of 78 million.
This is a survey of over 1,000 employers across multiple technological, demographic and economic trends. It is not observed unemployment, or a claim that 39% of knowledge loses all value.
These studies use different populations and methods. They cannot be combined into a probability that a child will be replaced. · Sources reviewed: 16 OCT 2026
LET’S TALK / LOS ANGELES
What worries you most about your child’s future?
What to learn next, or whether years of learning will still be useful? Leave your contact details and let’s talk.
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